Decoupling Analysis of Rural Population Change and Rural Electricity Consumption Change in China

Abstract

With the accelerated development of urbanization in China, rural permanent population has declined, while rural electricity consumption has increased, resulting in a significant waste of electricity resources. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2007 to 2020, this paper comprehensively used the decoupling model and the coordination degree model to analyze the temporal change characteristics, spatial distribution characteristics, and the degree of deviation of rural permanent population and rural electricity consumption. Firstly, according to the decoupling model, the type of decoupling between rural electricity consumption and rural permanent population was strong negative decoupling. At the provincial level, Beijing and Tibet belonged to expanding negative decoupling. Tianjin and Liaoning belonged to recession link. The other 27 provinces, including Hebei, Shanxi, and Shandong, belonged to strong negative decoupling. Secondly, according to the coordination degree model, the coordination type of the national rural permanent population and rural electricity consumption was uncoordinated. The areas that can be coordinated include 20 provinces, including Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian, and Jiangxi. The basic coordination areas included Beijing and Tibet. Finally, according to the comprehensive measurement model, the provinces with strong negative decoupling included Shanxi, Zhejiang, and Chongqing. Sichuan, Hebei, Shandong, and Shaanxi belonged to moderately strong negative decoupling groups.