Prediction of efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer: the value of texture analysis of magnetic resonance images

Abstract

Purpose: To explore the clinical feasibility of predicting the efficacy of neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) for rectal cancer on the basis of texture analysis (TA) of T2-weighted imaging (T2WI). Methods: The cohort for this prospective study comprised 136 patients with rectal cancer to be treated with nCRT, all of whom underwent three MR scans (pre-, early, and post-nCRT). Treatment efficacy was assessed on the basis of the outcomes of pathologic complete response (pCR) and non-pCR as determined by postoperative pathological examination. Extraction and analysis of texture features in T2WI of defined tumor regions were performed by AK software. Pre- and early-nCRT texture features were selected as potential predictors of outcomes by logistic regression analysis, and a prediction model for pCR was developed. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the predictive power of texture features in pre- and early-nCRT images. Results: Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the pre-nCRT features of energy, entropy, and skewness, and early-nCRT features of variance, kurtosis, energy, and entropy were independent predictors of pCR. A prediction model incorporating these predictors was constructed by multivariate logistic regression, The AUCs of pre-nCRT, early, and combined models were 0.751, 0.831, and 0.873, respectively; the sensitivities 66, 71, and 75%, respectively; and the specificities 87.22, 86.11, and 91.67%, respectively. Conclusions: TA of T2WI images can predict the efficacy of nCRT for rectal cancer, possibly providing a new marker of tumor biological response in clinical practice.