A Dynamic Growth Modeling Based On The Urban Attraction

Abstract

There are two main current of urban growth modeling. One is a traditional synthetic growth model using System Dynamics(SD). The other is a regional science model which can determine the location of industry and residence based on micro economics. Although this study basically uses the framework of SD, the principles of micro economics and an aggregated behavior model are introduced in some part in order to make the urban growth models more reliable. The model has four traditional sectors, such as industry sector, population sector, land sector and worker sector. In addition to them, there is a crucial addition of the migration sector which predicts the migration intended for Sendai, Tokyo and other part of Tohoku. Migration based on urban attraction is determined using real data based on an individual utility concept and a multiple regression analysis. The model is applied to Sendai Metropolitan Area for coming 100 years.