Methodological and Uncertainty-Focused Evaluation of Tiered Approaches for Maritime Black Carbon Inventories in the Philippines

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) is a short-lived climate pollutant with substantial warming and health impacts, yet its contribution from maritime activities in data-limited regions remains poorly constrained. This study conducts a methodological and uncertainty-focused evaluation of tier-based emission inventory approaches from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/European Environment Agency (EMEP/EEA) Guidebook, examining fuel-based (Tier I) and activity-based (Tier III) methodologies using national fuel statistics, port call activity, vessel registry data, and an operational Philippine Coast Guard dataset. Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis, spatial mapping, and hotspot intensity analysis are applied to evaluate how each tier responds to data limitations and parameter uncertainty rather than to reconcile absolute emission magnitudes. Results indicate that Tier I provides scalability for national reporting but exhibits substantial uncertainty for gasoline-dominated segments due to reliance on particulate matter-based proxies, underscoring the role of Tier II as a targeted refinement option. Tier III applies an activity-based formulation using fuel consumption resolved by operational phase and phase-specific emission factors, consistent with EMEP/EEA Tier III guidance. These findings are integrated into a decision-oriented synthesis to support informed selection and combination of tiered emission approaches under data-limited maritime conditions aligned with national and international climate commitments.