ARIMAX model for rainfall forecasting in Pangkalpinang, Indonesia

Abstract

In recent years, the weather and climate are unpredictable and the most visible is the rotation of the rainy season and the dry season. The extreme changes in rainfall can cause disasters and losses for the community. For that we need to predict the rainfall to anticipate the worst events. Rainfall is included in the periodic series data, so the forecasting method that can be used is the ARIMAX model which is ARIMA model expanded by adding the exogen variable. The aim of this research is to predict the rainfall data in Pangkalpinang City, Indonesia. The best model for each rainfall is ARIMAX (0,1,3) for monthly rainfall data and ARIMAX (0,1,2) for maximum daily rainfall. This research shows that there is an influence maximum wind speed variable to monthly rainfall and maximum daily rainfall in the Pangkalpinang City. Nevertheless, when viewed from the ARIMA and ARIMAX models based on the obtained AIC value, the ARIMAX value is still better than ARIMA. However, the prediction value using ARIMAX needs to increase again to take into account seasonal data rainfall. Then, possible to add other exogeneous factors besides maximum wind speed.