Predictors of 30-Day Unplanned Readmission After Carotid Artery Stenting Using Artificial Intelligence

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to describe the rates and causes of unplanned readmissions within 30 days following carotid artery stenting (CAS) and to use artificial intelligence machine learning analysis for creating a prediction model for short-term readmissions. The prediction of unplanned readmissions after index CAS remains challenging. There is a need to leverage deep machine learning algorithms in order to develop robust prediction tools for early readmissions. Methods: Patients undergoing inpatient CAS during the year 2017 in the US Nationwide Readmission Database (NRD) were evaluated for the rates, predictors, and costs of unplanned 30-day readmission. Logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), deep neural network (DNN), random forest, and decision tree models were evaluated to generate a robust prediction model. Results: We identified 16,745 patients who underwent CAS, of whom 7.4% were readmitted within 30 days. Depression [p < 0.001, OR 1.461 (95% CI 1.231–1.735)], heart failure [p < 0.001, OR 1.619 (95% CI 1.363–1.922)], cancer [p < 0.001, OR 1.631 (95% CI 1.286–2.068)], in-hospital bleeding [p = 0.039, OR 1.641 (95% CI 1.026–2.626)], and coagulation disorders [p = 0.007, OR 1.412 (95% CI 1.100–1.813)] were the strongest predictors of readmission. The artificial intelligence machine learning DNN prediction model has a C-statistic value of 0.79 (validation 0.73) in predicting the patients who might have all-cause unplanned readmission within 30 days of the index CAS discharge. Conclusions: Machine learning derived models may effectively identify high-risk patients for intervention strategies that may reduce unplanned readmissions post carotid artery stenting. Central Illustration: Figure 2: ROC and AUPRC analysis of DNN prediction model with other classification models on 30-day readmission data for CAS subjects