Causes of Dimming and Brightening in China Inferred from Homogenized Daily Clear-Sky and All-Sky in situ Surface Solar Radiation Records (1958–2016)

Abstract

This paper presents a study on long-term surface solar radiation (SSR) changes over China under clear- and all-sky conditions and analyzes the causes of the ‘‘dimming’’ and ‘‘brightening.’’ To eliminate the nonclimatic signals in the historical records, the daily SSR dataset was first homogenized using quantile-matching (QM) adjustment. The results reveal rapid dimming before 2000 not only under all-sky conditions, but also under clear-sky conditions, at a decline rate of 29.7 6 0.4 W m22 decade21 (1958–99). This is slightly stronger than that under all-sky conditions at 27.4 6 0.4 W m22 decade21, since the clear-sky dimming stopped 15 years later. A rapid ‘‘wettening’’ of about 40-Pa surface water vapor pressure (SWVP) from 1985 to 2000 was found over China. It contributed 2.2% to the SSR decline under clear-sky conditions during the whole dimming period (1958–99). Therefore, water vapor cannot be the main cause of the long-term dimming in China. After a stable decade (1999–2008), an intensive brightening appeared under the clear-sky conditions at a rate of 10.6 6 2.0 W m22 decade21, whereas a much weaker brightening (20.8 6 3.1 W m22 decade21) has been observed under all-sky conditions between 2008 and 2016. The remarkable divergence between clear- and all-sky trends in recent decades indicates that the clouds played two opposite roles in the SSR changes during the past 30 years, by compensating for the declining SSR under the cloud-free conditions in 1985–99 and by counteracting the increasing SSR under cloud-free conditions in 2008–16. Aerosols remain as the main cause of dimming and brightening over China in the last 60 years, although the clouds counteract the effects of aerosols after 2000.