Economic Viability of Distribution Network Upgrade Deferral through BESS Sizing from K-Means Clustered Annual Load Profile Data

Abstract

The augmented electricity demand requires electrical infrastructure upgrades with system operators instituting strategies to increase Distribution Network (DN) capacity in tandem with load growth. In this study, a simple method of deploying Li-ion Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) to defer DN upgrades is presented by utilizing historical load profiles. The k-means algorithm is employed to cluster the annual load profiles obtained from a substation in groups of 15-minute intervals. The load data are min-max scaled and fed as input to the K-means algorithm. The NPV financial analysis method is followed in the DN upgrade deferral benefit determination with the acquired benefit depending on Li-ion BESS price and feeder upgrade cost. The results indicate economic viability of up to four years with a Net Present Value (NPV) of US$10k for Li-ion 2000kW/3000kWh BESS. More benefits and deferral years are achieved by varying Li-ion BESS and feeder upgrade costs to 80% and 120%, respectively with deferral years increased to six with an NPV of US$110k for Li-ion BESS of 3100kW/6000kWh.