Environmental modelling of climate change impact on grapevines: Case study from the Czech Republic

Abstract

Predicted climate change can significantly affect ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes. Possibilities of predicting climate change effects on growing conditions of crops are therefore sought for practical reasons. The aim of the present study is to contribute to the current discussions about the impact of climate change on agriculture. The case study from the Czech Republic presents methods and results of environmental modelling of the impact of predicted climatic changes on future conditions for growing grapevines. The model is based on the ecological relationship between climate and vegetation zonation of the landscape and thus belongs to the group of process biogeographic models applicable on a regional scale. The results of the presented model show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area. The results of the model relevant to the Czech Republic are in line with the previous assumptions of trends in future impacts of climate change on viticulture in Europe. However, the data resulting from the presented model, which relate to the time horizon beyond 2050, should be regarded as indicative and fraught with a high degree of uncertainty linked with the uncertainty of the input climatological prediction for this time period.