On forecasting thermospheric and ionospheric disturbances in space weather events

Abstract

It is well known that solar EUV radiation and auroral heat and momentum sources have a significant effect on thermospheric and ionospheric structure and dynamics. Upper atmosphere general circulation models using these forcings have been reasonably successful in simulating the thermosphere and ionosphere responses for a number of geophysical event studies. These models can be used as forecast models of thermospheric and ionospheric structure and dynamics by using predicted inputs of solar EUV and UV radiation, auroral hemispheric power of precipitating particles, cross-polar cap potential drop and ion convection patterns. It is also necessary to have a satisfactory initial state to start the simulation. The NCAR TIE-GCM that simulates the thermosphere and ionosphere between 95 and 800 km altitude is used to show the sensitivity of the thermosphere and ionosphere to space weather events.