Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: What Lies Ahead?

Abstract

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the central dilemma of the Iran War. The strategic waterway accounted for at least 20 percent of liquid petroleum flows before the American-led conflict. This article contends that the crisis could transform not just the Gulf's maritime order but the wider global energy and trade system tied to it. The study first analyzes Iran's dominance in the strait and compares it with the governance of other regional chokepoints, including the Turkish straits, the Suez Canal, and the Bab al-Mandeb linking the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. It then turns to the regional responses and examines the limitations of alternative routes, such as Iran's Jask port, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Oil Pipeline from Iraq to Turkey, the Saudi Aramco East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, and the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline from the United Arab Emirates to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. The article finds that the postwar order in the Gulf is unlikely to be binary—that is, either unrestricted navigation or full Iranian control. Instead, the post-conflict environment may feature partial restrictions, negotiated passage, and episodic disruptions.