Evaluating the Effectiveness of Brazilian Protected Areas Under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change can lead to a geographic range shift of species in the future, which might challenge a species to maintain viable populations with lower dispersal abilities over time. Therefore, protecting stable habitats is important for the conservation of these species. Herein, we assess the effectiveness of the Brazilian protected areas to preserve the rare and threatened coral snake Micrurus brasiliensis and explore the occurrence of stable habitat areas through its geographic distribution at the end of 21st century. We used ecological niche modeling to generate the potential distribution of the species in the present, and then projected its distribution to past and future climatic scenarios. We assessed whether Brazilian reserves would encompass suitable habitats in the future and proposed areas in which conservation efforts could be directed based on habitat stability (refugia) over time. Our findings show that the potential distribution of M. brasiliensis have shifted over the time, and there is an expected decrease of more than 60% in the amount of suitable areas in the future. The protected areas will contain climatically less suitable areas in the future. We strongly suggest expanding the existing reserve network as well as the creation of corridors between protected areas, allowing the dispersal of M. brasiliensis, enhancing the opportunities for preserving viable populations in the long term.