Model tuning with canonical correlation analysis

Abstract

Knowledge of the relationship between model parameters and forecast quantities is useful because it can aid in setting the values of the former for the purpose of having a desired effect on the latter. Here it is proposed that a well-establishedmultivariate statistical method known as canonical correlation analysis can be formulated to gauge the strength of that relationship. The method is applied to severalmodel parameters in the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) for the purpose of "controlling"three forecast quantities: 1) convective precipitation, 2) stable precipitation, and 3) snow. It is shown that the model parameters employed here can be set to affect the sum, and the difference between convective and stable precipitation, while keeping snow mostly constant; a different combination of model parameters is shown to mostly affect the difference between stable precipitation and snow, with minimal effect on convective precipitation. In short, the proposed method cannot only capture the complex relationship between model parameters and forecast quantities, it can also be utilized to optimally control certain combinations of the latter. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.