Coastal vulnerability to sea level rise in the southwestern Colombian Caribbean

Abstract

One of the concerns about climate change is the rise in sea level, which is associated with an increase in coastal erosion, saline intrusion in estuaries and the risk of flooding. These changes make it necessary to evaluate the coastal susceptibility and its adaptation capacity facing with this phenomenon. The Coastal Vulnerability Index made up of the variables geomorphology, slope, rate of change of coastline, significant wave height, rate of change of relative sea level and mean tidal range, seeks to locally estimate vulnerability This work focused on determining the Vulnerability in the coastline of the sectors Volcán de Lodo, Río Hobo, Zapata and Punta Las Vacas through the use of aerial photographs, satellite images, in situ data and government information, in order to specify those spaces in which effective management efforts must be concentrated for future adaptation. The application of the Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index (IVC) shows that more than a third of the coastline studied is in a situation of very high vulnerability, highlighting the combination of high erosion rates (between 2 and 9.8 m /year) with sea level increases that reach 3 mm/year, highlighting the urgent need to prioritize and protect the Volcán de Lodo and Río Hobo sites. The vulnerability results generated by sea level rise do not assess the magnitude or the probability of its occurrence, nor do they attempt to quantify damages or costs. Therefore, it is suggested to continue with more detailed studies in those areas that are considered a priority to carry out the threat analysis and risk calculation.