Actualización de escenarios de oferta y demanda de hidrocarburos en Colombia

Abstract

In this paper, we present a forecast of Colombia's hydrocarbons reserves and production for the 2013 to 2015 period. These results are the product of an adjustment conducted by Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética (UPME) of the scenarios generated by Arthur D'Little. This study is based on a methodology of scenario analysis which considers the impact of internal and external factors according to different uncertainty levels and their incidence on the future development of the sector. For these scenarios, the corresponding required investments for their realization are calculated. The analysis results make evident the importance of Colombia's potential in hydrocarbons. The incorporation of more than 9 billion barrels of oil and 6 tera-cubic feet of natural gas has been forecast. These achievements will depend on the investments in exploration and the development of oil prices as well as on a more efficient management of the associated environmental and social issues. (English) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]