Heat exposure information at screen level for an impact-based forecasting and warning service for heat-wave disasters

Abstract

The importance of impact-based forecasting services, which can support decision-making, is being emphasized to reduce the damage of meteorological disasters, centered around the World Meteorological Organization. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) began developing impact-based forecasting technology and warning services in 2018. This paper proposes statistical downscaling and bias correction methods for acquiring high-resolution meteorological data for the heat-wave impact forecast system operated by KMA. Hence, digital forecast data from KMA, with 5 km spatial resolution, were downscaled and corrected to a spatial resolution of 1 km using statistical interpolation methods. Cross-validation indicated the superior performance of the Gaussian process regression model (GPRM) technique with low root mean square error and percent bias values and high CC value. The GPRM technology had the lowest forecast error, especially during the hottest period in Korea. In addition, temperatures for land-use areas with low elevations and high activity, such as the urban, road, and agricultural areas, were high. It is essential to provide accurate heat exposure information at the screen level with high human activity. Spatiotemporally accurate heat exposure information can be used more realistically for risk management in agriculture, livestock and fishery, and for adjusting the working hours of outdoor workers in construction and shipbuilding.