Calibration for Epistemic Causality

Abstract

The epistemic theory of causality is analogous to epistemic theories of probability. Most proponents of epistemic probability would argue that one’s degrees of belief should be calibrated to chances, insofar as one has evidence of chances. The question arises as to whether causal beliefs should satisfy an analogous calibration norm. In this paper, I formulate a particular version of a norm requiring calibration to chances and argue that this norm is the most fundamental evidential norm for epistemic probability. I then develop an analogous calibration norm for epistemic causality, argue that it is the only evidential norm required for epistemic causality, and show how an epistemic account of causality that incorporates this norm can be used to analyse objective causal relationships.