Disturbance of sustainability of the reservoir ecosystem: A model approach for assessing and forecasting the long-term process of eutrophication

Abstract

The objective of the work is to simulate a long-term process of eutrophication based on the concept of the aquatic ecosystem instability. A model assessment of qualitative effects associated with the development of a succession of aquatic communities during degradation of the ecosystem requires expanding the boundaries of the conventional approach. This raises the question of changing the structure of the reservoir ecosystem model. An idea of the Darwin’s principle of natural selection is the key point for assessing changes in the biodiversity structure. The problem was solved through consideration of changes in physiological activities of hydrobionts. The study based on biogeochemical cycles modelling revealed the change in the structure of the ecosystem. Also the novelty of the work is in the implementation of the method for structural-dynamic modelling to assess the trend of long-term eutrophication of the Novosibirsk reservoir, the largest in Western Siberia.