Does Lockdown Compliance Reflect a Latent Trait?

Abstract

Imposing and enforcing lockdown rules are effective means to decelerate the spread of SARS-CoV-2. That said, the effectiveness of these rules strongly depends on citizens’ compliance. Here, we investigate the extent to which lockdown compliance varies as a function of (a) time-variant factors (i.e., infection wave), (b) rule-related factors (i.e., length, intensity, and flexibility of lockdown), and/or (c) stable individual differences. Using latent-state trait modeling with panel data from 1,098 German individuals who reported on their willingness to comply with five lockdown scenarios at two time points (April and November, 2020), we show that a substantial amount of variance can be attributed to a latent trait. Using data from a third time point (January 2021; N = 834), we show that this latent trait is associated with honesty/humility and conscientiousness above and beyond social desirability. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.