Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Public Health Expenditures, and Maternal and Child Mortality in Selected African Countries: Forecasting Modelling

Abstract

This study projects the performance of maternal and child mortalities in relation to the SDGs target (70 maternal deaths and 25 child deaths) by year 2030, based on three simulation scenarios of public health expenditures (PHEs). In essence, this study investigates the predictability of PHE in explaining maternal and child mortalities in a bid to confirm the possibility of meeting the SDGs target. The SSA is known to be facing critical health challenges; this study contributes to the problem underlying the health sector by forecasting PHEs in relation to goal 3 because the knowledge of correlation and threshold relationship between PHE and health outcomes, as seen in previous studies, may not be adequate to prepare the SSA countries towards achieving the SDGs target. This study uses Feasible Quasi-Generalised Least Squares as a baseline forecasting approach for 25 selected SSA countries. An increase in the PHE by 30 percent from the current level shows that only Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa will achieve the SDGs target of 70 maternal deaths, while Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Eswatini, Lesotho, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Togo may have to bear more than 200 maternal deaths by 2030. In contrast, about 60 percent of the countries will achieve the SDGs target for child mortality. PHEs must meet the 30% increase forecasted for a reduction in mortality, being the benchmark that will enable the SSA region to achieve the SDGs target by year 2030.