Online Conversion Rate Prediction via Multi-Interval Screening and Synthesizing under Delayed Feedback

Abstract

Due to the widespread adoption of the cost-per-action (CPA) display strategy that demands a real-time conversion rate prediction (CVR), delayed feedback is becoming one of the major challenges in online advertising. As the true labels of a significant quantity of samples are only available after long delays, the observed training data are usually biased, harming the performance of models. Recent studies show integrating models with varying waiting windows to observe true labels is beneficial, but the aggregation framework remains far from reaching a consensus. In this work, we propose the MultiInterval Screening and Synthesizing model (MISS for short) for online CVR prediction. We first design a multi-interval screening model with various output heads to produce accurate and distinctive estimates. Then a light-weight synthesizing model with an assembled training pipeline is applied to thoroughly exploit the knowledge and relationship among heads, obtaining reliable predictions. Extensive experiments on two real-world advertising datasets validate the effectiveness of our model.