Flood risk assessment in Ya’an, Sichuan, China based on the emergy theory

Abstract

The emergy theory provides a new approach for flood risk assessment from an ecological perspective. By employing the emergy method, we used five indicators (rainfall runoff, medical workers and students per 10,000 people, social fixed assets investment, unit land GDP, and land-use types) from three dimensions (natural environment, population, and social economy) and the GIS technique to assess the potential impact and risk of a flood disaster on different regions in Ya’an City. Our findings revealed regional differences in the distribution of flood risks in Ya’an City: Lushan County and Yucheng District face the highest risks, followed by Tianquan County and Mingshan District, and Shi-mian County has the lowest risk. The index method was employed to analyze the regional differences. By training a back-propagation neural network with data on flood disasters in the study area, we produced a flood risk distribution map. We found that Mingshan District, Lushan County and Yucheng District have higher risks than other regions. The results largely agree with what we obtained using the emergy method. Our study shows that flood risk assessment based on the emergy theory can provide a scientific basis for flood control and disaster relief initiatives.