Influence of Key Climate Factors on Desertification in Inner Mongolia

Abstract

Desertification is a major environmental problem facing the world today, and climate change is an important factor influencing desertification. This study investigates the impact of changes in key climate factors on desertification based on normalized difference vegetation index data, precipitation data and evaporation data from Inner Mongolia between 1982 and 2020 using correlation analysis, regression modelling, and residual analysis. The results show that precipitation and evaporation are significantly correlated with mild desertification and severe desertification, respectively, with correlation coefficients reaching 0.98 and −0.96, respectively. In severely desertified areas in central-eastern Inner Mongolia, there is a high correlation between desertification and temperature, the characteristics of the correlation of average maximum and minimum temperatures with desertification are similar to those of the correlation of average temperature with desertification, and the average maximum and minimum temperatures are well correlated with mild desertification, with correlation coefficients as high as 0.98 and 0.978, respectively. Climate contribution accounts for 97% of desertification in severely desertified areas, indicating that climate change has increased desertification in these areas. In regions with improved desertification, approximately 75% are primarily influenced by climate change (with a relative contribution greater than 50%), with climate factors exhibiting a relative contribution greater than 75% to desertification in 30% of these regions.