Trends of Ecological Footprints and policy direction for sustainable development in Mongolia: A case study

Abstract

In Mongolia, the Ecological Footprint (EF) has increased from 6.8 million global hectares (gha) in 1961 to 14.6 million gha in 2012; whilst the Biological capacity (BC) has decreased from 50.6 million gha in 1961 to 39.0 million gha in 2012. Throughout the study period, the grazing land footprint and carbon uptake land footprint have been the two major contributors to the EF variation. If the current trend continues, the EF will surpass the BC by around 2083. To ensure sustainable development in Mongolia, policy directions are advised. For the grazing land footprint, regulating the livestock numbers and herding practice changes are suggested. For the carbon uptake footprint, an increase in the combustion efficiency of the coal fired power plants and the extensive utilization of the renewable energy are suggested. Simple estimations of future carbon dioxide (CO2) emission changes based on various scenarios have been carried out. The amount of CO2 emissions in the mitigation scenarios decreased by up to 31.4% compared with the baseline scenario in 2030 in Mongolia. This case study is the first attempt to propose sustainable development strategies based on the estimation of Mongolia's ecological consumption pattern.