Initial validation of the global precipitation climatology project monthly rainfall over the United States

Abstract

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) established a multiyear global dataset of satellite-based estimates of monthly rainfall accumulations averaged over a grid of 2.5°x 2.5°geographical boxes. This paper describes an attempt to quantify the error variance of these estimates at selected reference sites. Fourteen reference sites were selected over the United States at the GPCP grid locations where high-density rain gauge network and high-quality data are available. A rigorous methodology for estimation of the error statistics of the reference sites was applied. A method of separating the reference error variance from the observed mean square difference between the reference and the GPCP products was proposed and discussed. As a result, estimates of the error variance of the GPCP products were obtained. Two kinds of GPCP products were evaluated: 1) satellite-only products, and 2) merged products that incorporate some rain gauge data that were available to the project. The error analysis results show that the merged product is characterized by smaller errors, both in terms of bias as well as the random component. The bias is, on average, 0.88 for the merged product and 0.70 for the satellite-only product. The average random component is 21% for the merged product and 79% for the satellite-only product. The random error is worse in the winter than in the summer. The error estimates agree well with their counterparts produced by the GPCP.