County-level Predictors of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases and Deaths in the United States: What Happened, and Where Do We Go from Here?

Abstract

Background: The United States has been heavily impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Understanding microlevel patterns in US rates of COVID-19 can inform specific prevention strategies. Methods: Using a negative binomial mixed-effects regression model, we evaluated the associations between a broad set of US county-level sociodemographic, economic, and health status-related characteristics and cumulative rates of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths between 22 January 2020 and 31 August 2020. Results: Rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths were higher in US counties that were more urban or densely populated or that had more crowded housing, air pollution, women, persons aged 20-49 years, racial/ethnic minorities, residential housing segregation, income inequality, uninsured persons, diabetics, or mobility outside the home during the pandemic. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this study provides results from the most comprehensive multivariable analysis of county-level predictors of rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths conducted to date. Our findings make clear that ensuring that COVID-19 preventive measures, including vaccines when available, reach vulnerable and minority communities and are distributed in a manner that meaningfully disrupts transmission (in addition to protecting those at highest risk of severe disease) will likely be critical to stem the pandemic.