Estimating the value of investments and imports for achieving food security for fish

Abstract

We research current scenarios to estimate the value of the investments and imports needed to achieve different levels of food security for fish in Egypt. We use the strategic stock estimation equations, the food security coefficient, the distribution of Bernoulli, and the standard errors at 95% confidence. The results are as follows. The strategic stock of fish reached 376,350 tons. With local consumption of 1.71 million tons in 2015, the fish food security coefficient was estimated at 0.22. The relative importance of the contribution of local production of fish security ranged from 14.05 to 20.95% at 95% confidence, while that of imports ranged from 1.15 to 8.05% at 95% confidence. Achieving full fish security requires an increase in production by 1.09 million tons to at most 1.62 million tons and an increase in fish imports from 88,760 tons to at most 621,350 tons, both at 95% confidence. The value of additional investments at a 10% discount rate to achieve full fish security ranged from at least 6.28 billion pounds to at most 9.35 billion pounds, while the value of the increase in fish imports ranged from at least 1.41 billion pounds to at least 9.85 billion pounds at 95% confidence.