Mapping Vegetation Changes in Mongolian Grasslands (1990–2024) Using Landsat Data and Advanced Machine Learning Algorithm

Abstract

Grassland ecosystems provide a range of services in semi-arid and arid regions. However, they have significantly declined due to overgrazing and desertification. In the current study, we employed Landsat time series data (TM, OLI, OLI-2) spanning from 1990 to 2024, combined with vegetation indices such as NDVI and SAVI, along with NDWI and digital elevation models (DEMs), to analyze land cover dynamics in the Ugii Lake watershed area, Mongolia. By integrating multisource remote sensing data into the advanced XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting) machine learning algorithm, we achieved high classification accuracy, with overall accuracies exceeding 94% and Kappa coefficients greater than 0.92. The results revealed a decline in montane grasslands (−6.2%) and an increase in other grassland types, suggesting ecosystem redistribution influenced by climatic and anthropogenic factors. Cropland exhibited resilience, recovering from a significant decline in the 1990s to moderate growth by 2024. Our findings highlight the stability of barren land and underscore pressures from ecological degradation and human activities. This study provides up-to-date statistical data to support decision-making in the conservation and sustainable management of grassland ecosystems in Mongolia under changing climatic conditions.