An LSTM based forecasting for major stock sectors using COVID sentiment

Abstract

Stock market forecasting is an important research area, especially for better business decision making. Efficient stock predictions continue to be significant for business intelligence. Traditional short-term stock market forecasting is usually based on historical market data analysis such as stock prices, moving averages, or daily returns. However, major events’ news also contains significant information regarding market drivers. An effective stock market forecasting system helps investors and analysts to use supportive information regarding the future direction of the stock market. This research proposes an efficient model for stock market prediction. The current proposed study explores the positive and negative effects of coronavirus events on major stock sectors like the airline, pharmaceutical, e-commerce, technology, and hospitality. We use the Twitter dataset for calculating the coronavirus sentiment with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model to improve stock prediction. The LSTM has the advantage of analyzing relationship between time-series data through memory functions. The performance of the system is evaluated by Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The results show that performance improves by using coronavirus event sentiments along with the LSTM prediction model.