China in Central Asia: The beginning of the end for Russia?

Abstract

With China continuing to make economic forays into Central Asia, attention has simultaneously turned to Russia's privileged position in the region. A cursory glance through many articles concerned with the 'Russia - Central Asia - China' dynamic provides a misleading impression that Beijing's strengthened ties with the countries of Central Asia are coming at the expense of Moscow's influence. This paper will show that events, conventionally characterized as breakthroughs in the 'China - Central Asia' relationship in the last four to five years, are in fact part and parcel of larger economic trends that began long before the inking of the energy and trade deals. The reality of China's growing economic influence in Central Asia is not disputed. What this paper will argue is that despite the heralded dislodging of Russia by China, Russia will continue to play a substantial role in the region through a combination of energy, culture, and military bonds that run much too deep for Beijing to sever in the short to medium term. © School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University College London, 2014.