Impact of land use changes on total rainfall and urban hydrological fluxes

Abstract

Current research on the impact of land use changes on urban rainfall and their subsequent effects on urban hydrological fluxes remains limited. This study addresses these gaps by simulating urban rainfall process under land use changes with the WRF model and urban flooding scenarios under various rainfall patterns and land use conditions with the InfoWorks ICM model. The key findings are as follows: (1) Land use changes result in a continuous increase in cumulative rainfall. (2) For rainfall events with 3- and 5-year return periods, changes in rainfall have a significantly greater impact on urban hydrological fluxes than land use changes. In contrast, for 10-year return period events, land use changes exert a more pronounced influence. (3) The effects of land use and rainfall on urban hydrological fluxes were quantified. Rainfall—land use contributes approximately 53% to the variation in hydrological fluxes. This study emphasizes the critical role that land use changes play in shaping urban rainfall and hydrological fluxes. The findings underscore the importance of incorporating land use considerations in urban planning and flood mitigation strategies, particularly for regions experiencing rapid urbanization, offering valuable insights for sustainable urban water management practices.