An optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic: a comparative study of five countries

Abstract

This paper formulates an optimal control model of COVID-19 pandemic spreading. We discuss the health sector performance of Argentina, Hungary, Egypt, Malaysia, and Iraq. A mathematical model describes an actual case number of COVID-19. We investigate three strategies depend on recovery rate, death rate, and together (optimal). These strategies represent the percent of the health sector development. The explicit solution of the model using the Pontryagin maximum principle is derived. The results showed the ranking of countries based on the new percent of the recovery and death cases. A new percent as a result to the control variable value (health sector development). Also, the development percent of the health sector of each country, was determined. For example, 0.005 led to a significant reduce the death rates in Malaysia. Meanwhile, a half of death rates could reduce by this percent in Egypt.