Modelling the Relationship Between Public Expenditure, Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Türkiye Using the AARDL Approach

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the macroeconomic impact of fiscal policy in Türkiye, where fiscal policy faces several challenges. Using annual time series data from 1980 to 2021, we examine the impact of tax and public expenditure subcomponents on GDP using the augmented autoregressive distributed lag (A-ARDL) bound test approach proposed by Sam et al. (2019). The A-ARDL test results indicate that tax revenue has a positive impact on economic growth in the short run, while tax revenue has a negative impact on economic growth in the long run. Furthermore, we conclude that increases in current and investment expenditures have a positive impact on economic growth in the short and long run, while increases in transfer expenditures have a negative impact on economic growth in the short run.