The impact of demographic dividend shift on household consumption:Evidence from China

Abstract

The study empirically examines and tests the impact and main effect mechanisms of the demographic dividend shift on residents’ consumption using provincial panel data. The study shows that the demographic dividend shift has significantly increased the per capita consumption expenditure of urban and rural residents in general, which is mainly realized through the two influences of increasing the per capita disposable income of residents and improving the regional consumption environment. Moreover, in addition to the expansion of consumption, the demographic dividend shift also has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of consumption structure; and the consumption expansion effect of the demographic dividend shift mainly comes from the significant positive impact on the consumption of rural residents, while the impact on the consumption of urban residents is not significant; in the areas where China’s labor force outflows are small, the demographic dividend shift promotes per capita consumption expenditures of both urban and rural residents significantly more strongly.