Reassessing the Impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative: A Mixed Methods Approach

Abstract

This study reassesses the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by examining various economic linkages between China and other economies. An extensive review of the literature reveals that empirical studies in this field seldom account for the possibility that the BRI might itself be a product, rather than a cause, of connections between China and the world. Based on statistical analyses of data from 163 countries between 1999 and 2017 and mini-case studies on Italy and Hungary, this study finds that the scope and coverage of the BRI are determined by China’s pre-existing connections with other economies. The actual impact of the BRI on various economic outcomes, with the partial exception of Chinese investments flowing to formal participants, is limited when pre-BRI trends are accounted for. In addition, given the encompassing nature of the BRI framework, the concern that the BRI is autocracy-exporting or corruption-inducing appears to be exaggerated. The study thus calls for a more nuanced consideration of the actual impact of the BRI.