Assessing Yield Disparities: Anticipated versus Optimal Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems and Implications for Prosumer Viability

Abstract

Solar photovoltaics, especially rooftop systems also called distributed solar photovoltaics, are crucial in the ongoing energy transition. Modeling these systems is vital to understanding their role in a decentralized energy system. While ground-mounted photovoltaic power plants are easier to model, generalizing yield profiles for rooftop systems is challenging. This study aims to estimate yield loss effects for rooftop solar photovoltaic systems compared to optimized ground-mounted systems. Anticipated yield losses are 18% for residential, 7% for commercial, and 4% for industrial rooftop systems. The impact on residential prosumers’ viability is assessed by comparing prosumer system optimization results with and without yield losses. Results show a non-uniform change in installed solar photovoltaic and battery capacities, with a tendency to compensate for reduced yields by increasing photovoltaic capacity by up to 20%, given favorable cost prospects by 2050. The annualized total cost of energy for prosumer households could therefore increase by up to 20% by 2050. Despite yield reductions, installing a solar photovoltaic prosumer system remains more favorable than relying entirely on-grid electricity. This study highlights the importance of considering yield losses in rooftop solar photovoltaics and the significant role of prosumers despite identified yield losses.