Accelerated Decline in Vegetation Resilience on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

The ability of ecosystems to resist and recover from external disturbances is declining due to climate change, increased frequency of disasters, and intensified human activities. Global vegetation resilience is considered to be at risk of being lost. The sensitive and fragile Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced changes in climate and management patterns over the past five decades, but due to the complexity of defining resilience, there is still no unified understanding of the spatial patterns and long time-series trends of resilience on the TP. In this study, we introduce the method based on critical slowing down, making it possible to clarify the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of resilience on the TP. The results show low resilience on the northeastern and southwestern edges of the TP and in the Three River Source region. The area experiencing resilience loss is approximately 1.16–1.44 times larger than the area of gain. Vegetation resilience on the TP has exhibited a declining trend, with the rate of decline after 2014 being more than double that of the preceding period. Factors such as elevation, vegetation type, and hydrothermal condition significantly influence the spatial and temporal patterns of resilience. These findings improve our understanding of vegetation resilience on the TP and its ecosystem vulnerability. We also recommend that ecological restoration efforts be maintained and regularly assessed.