Examining the Modeling Framework of Crime Hotspot Models in Predictive Policing

Abstract

Predictive policing has its roots in crime hotspot modeling. In this paper we give an example of what goes into mathematical crime hotspot modeling and show that the modeling assumptions perpetuate systemic racism in policing. The goal of this paper is to raise objections to this field of research, not on its mathematical merit, but on the scope of the problem formation. We do not make any suggestions about how to incorporate race into predictive policing models in order to make them less biased.