Third Time’s the Charm: The Youth Vote and Prabowo’s Victory in the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election

Abstract

After previous failed attempts, Prabowo Subianto won the 2024 Indonesian presidential election. In this article, we outline the events that unfolded in the run-up to the election before analyzing the drivers of Indonesian voting behaviour based on original survey data. Our analyses underscore the importance of transformations in the generational composition of the Indonesian electorate: younger voters, especially those born after the return of democracy, are fuelling its erosion with their support of a former general accused of human rights abuses. In addition to benefitting from the support of incumbent President Joko Widodo, we argue that Prabowo’s victory was underpinned by a sophisticated social media campaign, the waning memory of Indonesia’s authoritarian past, and a young populace anxious about their economic prospects.