Assessing integrated earthquake risk in OpenQuake with an application to Mainland Portugal

Abstract

At the forefront of the risk assessment sciences is the development of standards, data, and tools for the assessment of earthquake risk. Countries such as Portugal have been targets of extensive earthquake risk assessments to communicate damage potential and to improve methodologies. Few studies, however, have gone beyond the estimation of direct physical impacts by integrating estimates of physical risk (i.e., human or economic losses) with quantified metrics of socioeconomic characteristics of populations. The purpose of this paper is to describe an end-to-end assessment of earthquake risk for mainland Portugal that accounts for physical and social attributes using the Global Earthquake Model's (GEM) suite of risk assessment tools. The results indicate that the potential adverse effects from earthquakes in Portugal are related to interacting conditions, some conditional on geography, some due to the characteristics of the building stock, and some having to do with the social characteristics of populations.