Analysis of variability and projection of extreme rainfall in West Java

Abstract

This research discusses the effect of climate change on extreme rainfall in West Java using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios by comparing daily rainfall data with model ACCESS-1, CSIROMK3.6 model, MIROC-5 from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) and the ensemble of three models each season with Extreme Dependency Score (EDS) method. This study projects an extreme rainfall index of 30 years (2011-2040). The three extreme rainfall indices issued by the Expert Detection Team and the Climate Change Index (ETCCDI) consisted of Rx1day, R50mm, and R95p used in this study. The results showed that the projection period (2011-2040) used RCP 8.5 which had a trend of increasing extreme rain index that was greater than RCP 4.5. For RCP 8.5 the maximum rainfall will increase in Indramayu, Majalengka, Purwakarta, Sukabumi and Ciamis areas. Increased rainy days occurred in Bogor, Bekasi, Karawang, Purwakarta, Bandung, Sumedang, Majalengka, Cirebon, Indramayu. Extreme rainfall will increase in Bekasi, Karawang and Bogor regions.