Trend analysis of Indian summer monsoon rainfall at different spatial scales

Abstract

The results obtained from a conventional trend analysis of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall over a larger region are contradicted when analysis is performed at a finer resolution because of spatial variability and heterogeneity in the rainfall pattern. The present study analyzes the trend of summer monsoon rainfall all over India at a finer spatial resolution (1° latitude × 1° longitude) to identify the places that have a significant trend in terms of both rainfall amount and occurrence. The results obtained from this study are compared with those of a recent study by Goswami et al. (2006), where trend analysis is performed over a larger region [Central India (CI); 10° latitude × 12° longitude; assumed to be homogeneous in that study]. The increasing trend of occurrence of heavy rainfall and decreasing trend of occurrence of moderate rainfall, as concluded from that study, are contradicted by the present results for some places in CI. The present analysis shows spatially varying mixed responses of global warming toward rainfall occurrence and amounts all over India. The perception of increase in daily rainfall amount and occurrence due to climate change is found to be not correct for some of the regions in India. The possible reason may be the spatial variability of local changes such as rapid urbanization, industrialization and deforestation. © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.