Implementation of a Gaussian Markov random field sampler for forward uncertainty quantification in the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.19

Abstract

Assessing the impact of uncertainties in ice-sheet models is a major and challenging issue that needs to be faced by the ice-sheet community to provide more robust and reliable model-based projections of ice-sheet mass balance. In recent years, uncertainty quantification (UQ) has been increasingly used to characterize and explore uncertainty in ice-sheet models and improve the robustness of their projections. A typical UQ analysis first involves the (probabilistic) characterization of the sources of uncertainty, followed by the propagation and sensitivity analysis of these sources of uncertainty. Previous studies concerned with UQ in ice-sheet models have generally focused on the last two steps but have paid relatively little attention to the preliminary and critical step of the characterization of uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty in ice-sheet models, like uncertainties in ice-sheet geometry or surface mass balance, typically vary in space and potentially in time. For that reason, they are more adequately described as spatio-(temporal) random fields, which account naturally for spatial (and temporal) correlation. As a means of improving the characterization of the sources of uncertainties for forward UQ analysis within the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM), we present in this paper a stochastic sampler for Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function. The class of Matérn covariance functions provides a flexible model able to capture statistical dependence between locations with different degrees of spatial correlation or smoothness properties. The implementation of this stochastic sampler is based on a notable explicit link between Gaussian random fields with Matérn covariance function and a certain stochastic partial differential equation. Discretization of this stochastic partial differential equation by the finite-element method results in a sparse, scalable and computationally efficient representation known as a Gaussian Markov random field. In addition, spatio-temporal samples can be generated by combining an autoregressive temporal model and the Matérn field. The implementation is tested on a set of synthetic experiments to verify that it captures the desired spatial and temporal correlations well. Finally, we illustrate the interest of this stochastic sampler for forward UQ analysis in an application concerned with assessing the impact of various sources of uncertainties on the Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. We find that larger spatial and temporal correlations lengths will both likely result in increased uncertainty in the projections.