DEVELOPMENT OF TSUNAMI EVACUATION SIMULATION SYSTEM AND ITS APPLICATION TO ASSESSMENT OF AREA REFUGE SAFETY

Abstract

The Nankai earthquake is predicted to occur with the probability of 50-60% within 30 years. The damage from this earthquake will be brought by both the seismic ground motion and tsunami. In areas with high hazard to tsunami, it is desirable that emergency evacuation drill is carried out under the condition which all inhabitants participate in that drill, to find the latent problems of the evacuation and make them awake to tsunami risk, but it is difficult to perform such a emergency evacuation drills. In this study, a tsunami evacuation simulation system based on Petri Net was developed to solve the problem. It was shown that the simulation system proposed here was very useful to accurately simulate the behavior of all inhabitants during the tsunami evacuation. In addition, area safety index of tsunami evacuation was proposed based on the refuge completion ratio curves of area, and from some simulation results, it became clear that this index was effective for assessment of refuge safety of areas.