The Impact of Floods on the Mobility of Automobile Commuters in Shanghai Under Climate Change

Abstract

As sea level rises, low-lying coastal cites face increasing threat of flood disruption, particularly in terms of human mobility. Commuters are vulnerable to bad weather, as it is difficult to cancel trips even in extreme weather conditions. Using Shanghai’s automobile commuting population as an example, we categorized commuters by travel distance and income level to assess disruptions and delays due to floods, considering future sea level rise. The results show that local flooding disrupts commuting patterns by affecting roadways, with disruption decreasing with distance from the flooded area. This offers a mobility perspective on the indirect impacts of floods. During baseline flood events, long-distance commuters and the low-income group are most affected, while short-distance commuters and the high-income group are less impacted. As sea level rises, floods will threaten all commuting groups, especially the high-income group. Using inaccessibility-commuting delay bivariate maps, this study revealed how socioeconomic differences impact mobility recovery after floods under climate change. The research highlights the differential impacts of floods on various socioeconomic groups in the context of climate change, offering insights for future urban planning and disaster mitigation strategies.