ESTIMASI PARAMETER MODEL GRAVITY DENGAN METODE ENTROPI MAKSIMUM DAN FUNGSI HAMBATAN PANGKAT (STUDI KASUS KABUPATEN SUKOHARJO)

Abstract

The increasing population and economic growth in the Surakarta agglomeration area also have an impact on increasing the number of movements in and out of Sukoharjo regency and can lead to transportation problems. To solve the problem, an analysis of the matrix of origin for the destination is required. The purpose of this study is to find out the movement pattern of the Origin Destination Matrix (ODMatrix) from the value of the β parameters analyzed using the maximum entropy estimation method and the function of rank resistance while knowing the size of the movement pattern in 2021 and knowing the validity level of the modeling flow with observations of traffic flow in Sukoharjo regency. This research was conducted in Sukoharjo, which is directly adjacent to six surrounding cities. The method used is the maximum entropy and level obstacles function by retrieving traffic survey data at 31 points covering 12 internal zones and 24 external zones. The original matrix estimation uses a gravity model of the pullup boundary with the help of EMME/3 software, where there is a β parameter that contains a constraint function inside. The method for obtaining β parameters is the Newton-Raphson calibration method using the Microsoft Excel program. Validity test using a coefficient of determination (R2) The results of this study showed a value of β parameters of 0.080 with a validity rate (R2) of 0.827, and the total number of movements in Sukoharjo Regency in 2021 will be 16374 pcu/hour.