Assessing the Effect of Agriculture Sub-sectors on the Gambia’s Economic Growth Using Time Series Econometric Models

Abstract

The study aimed to assess the contribution of agriculture sub-sectors on the economic growth of The Gambia. The study used time series data obtained from The Gambia Bureau of Statistics for the period from 2004 to 2016. Variables included: Economic growth, Crops, Livestock, Fisheries and Forestry. Denton’s method of disaggregation was used to convert annual data into quarterly series. Auto Regressive Distributed Lag model of the co-integrating vector was re-parameterized into Error Correction Model and used to assess the effect of the study variables to the economic growth. The results reveal that crops and fisheries sub-sectors have strong positive effect on economic growth in the long-run while crops and livestock sub- sector have positive effect in the short run to economic growth in first lag. The study concludes that agriculture sub-sectors influence economic growth in The Gambia. Therefore, the study recommends that massive attention and investments be directed to the agriculture sector for more economic expansion. Keywords: