Econometric Modeling for High Impact Sustainable Organic Tea Production: The Box-Jenkins Approach

Abstract

India is world’s second leading tea producer, and biggest consumers in the worldwide. The main objective of this investigation is to identify the Box-Jenkins method an Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models that can be used to make predictions the production and yield of tea in India. In this study considered the published yearly secondary data of tea production and yield in India period of 1970-71 to 2021-22. In accordance to the Sigma square, RMSE, MAPE, MAE, AIC and SIC the most appropriate models for prediction the tea production, and yield in India are ARIMA models (1, 1, 1) and (0, 1, 1). Acceptability of the selected models has been verified with the Ljung-Box test, ACF, PACF criterion, and white noise followed by residual diagnostics. Comparison between the original data series and the estimated data series in the similar manner indications that the fitted model performs good statistically and is suitable for forecasting 19 year (period of 2022-23 to 2040-41) the tea production and yield in India i.e., the models are good prediction during and beyond the forecasting period; and we have estimated that the annual amount of tea production and yield achieved in the year 2022-23 is 13500.17 lakh tonnes and 2119.73 kg/ha respectively, which will accelerate to reach 16728.34 lakh tonnes and 2444.34 kg/ha in the year 2041-41 respectively.