Optimization of grain import market layout in the context of food security: a study of soybean in China

Abstract

Introduction: Major food-importing countries are characterized by highly concentrated import sources, which easily exposes them to risks of food supply shortages due to over-reliance on a limited number of source countries. Methods: Using China’s soybean imports as a case study, this study proposes a novel analytical framework that specifically addresses the unique characteristics of agricultural products. A multi-objective optimization model is employed to both validate the framework’s rationality and explore optimization schemes for China’s import source layout. Results and discussion: The results indicate that, first, neglecting seasonal factors in optimizing China’s soybean import source layout may increase fluctuations in soybean import quantities. The import optimization considering seasonal factors can reduce risks at equivalent costs while ensuring import stability. Second, increased soybean export availability from Russia or Kazakhstan can further reduce risks at equivalent costs while ensuring the stability of soybean imports. This study establishes an analytical framework for optimizing import layout that conforms to the unique characteristics of agricultural products, aiming to achieve sustainable food supply and ensure food security in importing countries.