Modelling contingent technology adoption in farming irrigation communities

Abstract

Of all the uses ofwater, agriculture is the one that requires the greatest proportion of resourcesworldwide. Consequently, it is a salient subject for environmental policy-making, and adoption of modern irrigation systems is a key means to improve water use efficiency. In this paper we present an agent-based model of the adoption process — known as “modernisation" — of a community constituted by farmer agents. The phenomenon is approached as a contingent innovation adoption: A first stage to reach a collective agreement followed by an individual adoption decision. The model is based on historical data from two Spanish irrigation communities during the period 1975–2010. Results suggest that individual profits and farm extension (as proxy of social influence) are suitable assumptions when modelling the modernisation of communities in regions where agriculture is strongly market-oriented andwater is scarce. These encouraging results point towards the interest of more sophisticated socio-cognitive modelling within a more realistic socio-hydrologic context.